This is your definitive guide the Sabres’ playoff hopes. (If you catch an error, please let me know ASAP. I’ve put this together on my own so there’s a chance that I missed something.)
With 2 games left for each team that we care about right now (Buffalo, Washington, Florida) and Florida and Washington playing each other on Thursday, there are a total of 5 games (BUF@PHI, BUF@BOS, FLA@WSH(!), WSH@NYR, CAR@FLA) that are relevant to the discussion.
Obviously, we’re rooting for the Sabres to win their two remaining games. But what do we want to happen elsewhere, particularly in the Florida/Washington game on Thursday night? Let’s explore. The breakdown of each possible scenario is below but let’s flip the script and put the conclusions at the top.
- A win over the Flyers would be really great. Like, really, really, really great. With a win on Thursday, the Sabres are very much alive heading into Saturday regardless of the outcome in FLA@WSH.
- Best case scenario seems to be a Sabres win and Panthers regulation win but, assuming the Sabres win, every possible outcome of FLA@WSH has a silver lining.
- An OT or shootout win by the Capitals is the worst thing that can happen in FLA@WSH. It removes the possibility of catching the Panthers and shrinks (with a Sabres win or OT/shootout loss) or removes (with a Sabres regulation loss) the chance of catching the Caps.
- The only way the Sabres are eliminated prior to Saturday is if they lose in regulation to the Flyers AND the Capitals beat the Panthers.
SABRES WIN OVER FLYERS AND:
PANTHERS WIN IN REGULATION: Panthers clinch division. Sabres move 2 points ahead of Capitals and control their own destiny. Sabres can only miss playoffs with a regulation loss to Bruins AND a Capitals win over Rangers.
PANTHERS WIN IN OT OR SHOOTOUT: Florida clinches division. Sabres move 1 point ahead of Capitals and control their own destiny. Since Capitals own tiebreaker, Sabres must maintain (or build upon) 1 point lead on Capitals through Saturday’s games.
CAPITALS WIN IN REGULATION: Capitals’ Magic Number drops to 2, while Panthers’ Magic Number stays at 1. To pass Caps, Sabres need win over Bruins AND Capitals loss to Rangers OR Sabres OT/shootout loss to Bruins AND Capitals regulation loss to Rangers. To pass Panthers, Sabres need win over Boston and Panthers regulation loss to Hurricanes.
CAPITALS WIN IN OT OR SHOOTOUT: Panthers clinch division. Capitals’ Magic Number drops to 2. To pass Caps, Sabres need win over Bruins AND Capitals loss to Rangers.
SABRES REGULATION LOSS TO FLYERS AND:
PANTHERS WIN IN REGULATION: Panthers clinch division. Sabres remain tied in points with Capitals with Caps holding tiebreaker. Sabres need to be 1 point better than Capitals on Saturday. Sabres need win over Bruins AND Capitals loss to Rangers OR Sabres OT or shootout loss AND Capitals regulation loss to Rangers.
PANTHERS WIN IN OT OR SHOOTOUT: Florida clinches division. Capitals move 1 point ahead of Sabres and hold tiebreaker. Sabres need win over Bruins AND Capitals regulation loss to Rangers.
CAPITALS WIN: Sabres eliminated.
SABRES OT/SHOOTOUT LOSS TO FLYERS:
PANTHERS WIN IN REGULATION: Panthers clinch division. Sabres move 1 point ahead of Capitals and control their own destiny. Sabres must maintain (or build upon) 1 point lead on Capitals through Saturday’s games.
PANTHERS WIN IN OT OR SHOOTOUT: Panthers clinch division. Sabres remain tied with Capitals in points. Since Capitals own tiebreaker, Sabres must earn 1 more point than Capitals do on Saturday.
CAPITALS WIN: Panthers can no longer be caught by Sabres. Capitals’ Magic Number drops to 1. Sabres need win over Bruins AND Capitals regulation loss to Rangers.
I still think we got this.
Holy mother of God… It’s like organic chemistry all over again.
Relook Sabres loss to flyers scenario. You mention capitals loosing to hurricans. It needs to be capitals loose to Rangers, other than that GO SABRES!! It can be done!!!!
Fixed. Thanks.
Hey brad,
Great work! Only mistake I noticed is that in the second set of scenarios, you have the capitals vs the hurricanes on Saturday. Obviously that should be “Rangers”. Don’t mean to criticize because you did a fabulous and thorough job here.
Ed
Fixed. Thank you.
Prediction from DC: Caps lose their remaining three. They’re running out of gas, and their goaltending is VERY shaky right now.
Awesome – thanks! Buffalo Website Design
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So if all 3 teams are tied at 92 points, the pathers are out?
“PANTHERS WIN IN REGULATION: Panthers clinch division. Sabres remain tied in points with Capitals with Caps holding tiebreaker. Sabres need to be 1 point better than Capitals on Saturday. Sabres need win over Bruins AND Capitals loss to Hurricanes OR Sabres OT or shootout loss AND Capitals regulation loss to Rangers.”
I’m still seeing caps losing to the canes here… The caps play Panthers and rangers in their remaining 2 games I thought. Great work otherwise, This is certainly going to be a fun ride. I’m excited and nervous at the same time.
Typo was fixed a couple of hours ago. It should appear the right way if you refresh.
Yep, I had still missed it in that spot. Got it now. Thank you.
ERROR:
SABRES REGULATION LOSS TO FLYERS AND:
PANTHERS WIN IN REGULATION: Panthers clinch division. Sabres remain tied in points with Capitals with Caps holding tiebreaker. Sabres need to be 1 point better than Capitals on Saturday. Sabres need win over Bruins AND Capitals loss to Hurricanes OR Sabres OT or shootout loss AND Capitals regulation loss to Rangers.
Caps don’t play the Canes.
Fixed.
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Hey Brad,
For the Sabres beat Flyers and Capitals beat Fla in regulation possibility. We dont have to beat Boston, we can lose in OT/Shootout as long as WAS loses in regulation. Not a big deal though.
Awesome job, best I’ve seen!
I don’t know how I am going to explain this to my eight year old when he asks: “Are the Sabres going to the playoffs?”
Don’t show this to him. When I was 8, I was interested in this type of stuff and look where it got me. Mamas, don’t let your babies grow up to host sports talk.
Best Comment of the Night!
Your 4th bullet point off the top is wrong. “The only way the Sabres can miss the playoffs is a Sabres loss to the Flyers and a Caps win over the Panthers (that should read Caps OT/Shootout win over the Panthers) I think that’s what you meant.
My bullet point is correct. Sabres loss to Flyers alone would make Panthers uncatchable by Sabres and Caps win over Panthers on top of that would make Caps uncatchable by Sabres.
Let’s go boys! Just win the last two and let all these other bastards fend for themselves! I you can bounce back from a 3 goal deficit to win in OT…..and….and can be in last place what a month ago and be where you are now, you can make it happen! Let’s go BUFFALO!
Hey in your column about sabres beating flyers and Washington beating Florida. Buffalo doesn’t HAVE to beat Boston the. An OT/SO loss gets them in combined with a Washington regulation loss to NYR
Good call. I missed that. It’s fixed now. Thank you!
nice job.i think the best route is to beat philly and boston and have florida beat washington.tall task without myers now.
This is great, but complex, so I think I’m just going to root for Panthers and Sabres victory on Thursday, then refer back to this in preparation for Saturday
So we know we want the sabres to win out … but what/who are we rooting for on Wednesday between the Caps and Pathers?
I thought I laid it out pretty clearly in the article. Best case scenario seems to be a Florida win in regulation while worst case is definitely a Washington win in OT/SO. That said, this isn’t a black and white issue which is why there’s so much info packed into what I wrote.
Brad,
You could include Buffalo’s magic number which would be 5 (against Caps and Panthers). It’s 5 over Florida now because the tie-breaker is not offically clinched yet but will be thursday with a Sabres non-SO win and Florida Reg loss. Essentially this is covered in your write-up anyways. Good job!
It’s not a Magic Number until it can be applied universally. Since the Sabres are still chasing 2 teams, it doesn’t work… not magical enough!
Brad, awesome job! i’m confused though on your very last point. >CAPITALS WIN: Panthers can no longer be caught by Sabres.< why does a Caps win make the Panthers uncatchable? thanks!!!
In that scenario, the Sabres lose to the Flyers in OT. With a Magic Number of 1 heading into Thursday, the Panthers clinch a playoff spot because of the point the Sabres leave on the table.
This is great but you forgot one very important step. We all need to pray to the Hockey Gods! Sabres fans deserve a break!
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